Should I Use (and Trust) School Chance Predictors?


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Session 54

What are medical school chance predictors? Can a web-based algorithm actually tell you anything your character and your chances of getting in?

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[00:33] What Are Your Chances?

You may stumble across some websites that tell you and help you pick out schools where you have good shots at getting in.

How it works: Basically, you go to a particular site and put in your science GPA, MCAT section scores, state of residence, and race. Click on the Analyze button. Then it shows you the results of schools that are far-reaching, undershoot, and far undershoot schools.

'Every medical school is hard to get into.'Click To Tweet

[02:00] What They Have is Useless Data

When you find websites like this that will help you pick schools, ignore the

What usually happens is they take data out from AAMC and then compare these against the information you entered. All they tell you is a comparison of your stats versus whatever stats they have available.

'That information is completely useless.'Click To Tweet

[03:10] Stats Don’t Get You an Acceptance

Medical schools do not accept people based on stats, state residency, and ethnicity. Your stats help you get to a reviewer. They help you land on the desk of somebody who’s going to look at your application.

'There are so many other variables that go into getting into medical school.'Click To Tweet

Look at these websites and put in your information. Sure it can be fun to do. But don’t raise or lower your hopes based on what you’re seeing on these websites. 

You need a good GPA and a good MCAT score. That will help your application get reviewed by somebody. What really gets you the interview are your personal statement, extracurriculars, your letters of recommendation, and your secondaries.

But just because you get an interview doesn’t mean you’re getting an acceptance either. You have to prepare for the interview. Your stats don’t get you the interview nor an acceptance. Instead, your stats get you reviewed. Your interview gets you the acceptance.

[05:20] Stats Change Each Year

Again, understand that these websites are just there for fun. Don’t base anything in your application based on it at all. Do not pick schools based on that information.

What may have been last year’s entering class into medical school may not predict the future. 

Suppose you have a 3.7 GPA and a 510 MCAT score and the data says your chances of getting into medical school is 50%. What if there’s a bunch of geniuses the next year and they all have 3.9 GPA and 520 MCAT score? Now all of a sudden, your GPA and MCAT score are at the bottom of the barrel. Your chances will definitely go down.

'Your past performance doesn't predict future opportunity.'Click To Tweet

Every year, the students who are being accepted and the students who are applying change. Stats change. Again, these sites are just for fun. It’s just a different way to display old data. It doesn’t predict anything at all.

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